Old home week...
The news this week is filled with stories about China's launch of a two-man craft into orbit, and the videos the two "taikonauts" are sending back. They're national heroes in China.
Strangely, nobody seems to have mentioned why it would be important for the Chinese to put a man in space. What motivates a nation to spend the money it takes to develop a space program, especially a manned program?
There are a couple of reasons I can see. I don't claim these are "the" reason: they are the inscrutable Chinese, after all. But I'm willing to bet cash money that mentioning any of these in a room with the leadership elements of the Chinese government will draw some smiles:
1. Resources: The Chinese know that there are resources in space. This is trite, and sounds sci-fi nerdish, but I think it's true, and when you're running an absolute oligarchy you can take the long view. China is famous for taking the long view anyway, and also famous for having a population in excess of a billion people. What people often don't say after talking about China's population is that the one billion people are supported using 18th and 19th century techniques: most Chinese don't eat food from highly automated farms, the way Americans and Europeans do. That means two things: China could have a surplus if they automated, and China can easily double (or more) their population, if they wish.
But while that works for grain and rice, it doesn't necessarily work for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other "mineral" resources. So unlike the Americans, who plopped back down on the couch after they beat the Russians at something in space, the Chinese are looking at launching their own satellites and maybe collecting their own rocks.
2. Prestige: Putting a man in space is an exclusive club. Far more so, in these days, than detonating a nuclear device. So China's launch of a manned spacecraft says to the "old" powers: the US and former USSR, "Hey, we're a young hip spacefaring nation. Show us some respect!"
It also, of course, one-ups the other powers in the region: India (also nuclear), and Japan (spacefaring with satellites). On a political/propaganda level, the Chinese have scored a pretty major "be true to your school" type goal. This week, it's cool to be Chinese.
3. Weight: Space capsules are heavy. This is the reason that nobody is talking about: the elephant in the newsroom. Here's a pop quiz for you:
It's kind of a trick question, of course. The word is the same in every language on the planet. It's 'inter-continental ballistic missile.'
I'm part of the last generation to grow up with MAD being something other than a bunch of parents whining about drunken driving. So understandably a lot of the people in the newsroom may not have made the connection right away. But I will guarantee that the crowbar that was used to pry the money out of the Chinese government for a manned space program was not: "Gee, boss! We'll beat the Koreans to the moon!"
The Chinese are viewed by everyone — especially the Chinese — as being an "up and coming" nation. They're developing a technological infrastructure, extracting natural resources, becoming a leader in the region, maturing diplomatically (to the point where they've become the leash-holder for N. Korea), and in general are getting ready to become part of what was once called "the First World."
But they've still got that Communist government. What that means, more than anything else, is they've got a government that puts old men in power. Like the Communist USSR and the Mafia, you've got to spend your time, take your licks, pay your dues, whatever, to make it to the top of the Chinese political org-chart. And that means that the people in charge are older even than I am, by a wide margin. They still think this way. Believe it.
The public launch of a manned space mission is fundamentally a statement: "We hereby announce that we have the wherewithal to successfully launch nuclear weapons at targets anywhere on the planet." But it says so in a way that's okay to put on TV. That's what a bunch of generals and politicians get out of a manned space program. 'Tang, the Space Drink' ain't in it!
Now, you'll recall the furor during the Clinton administration over the Chinese theft of plans for some of America's most modern nuclear weapons. Here's the fun news: those weapons are secret- super ultra tippety toppety secret- because they're small. Heavy, mind you: you don't make anything lightweight out of elements that end with "-ium". But we know they've got a booster platform capable of putting a 'manned capsule' in space, and they've got the ability to build very small warheads. It's time for question 2:
MIRV is significant, you probably don't remember, because it was the pinnacle of nuclear warfighting technology. MIRV made it all but impossible to negotiate arms control agreements: counting warheads and launch vehicles separately drove everyone nuts. A 'single' missile with eight or ten or sixteen(!) warheads was 'one'. But take it apart for maintenance or inspection and it stopped being 'one' and started being 'lots'. What a headache.
Now if you've read this far, you're probably thinking, "Dude! You need to drink less coffee and get back on your medication — your paranoia is showing!" And you may be right. But before the butterfly-net boys get here, let's answer one more question, shall we:
The government has pointed at Saddam with his Scud attacks on Israel, Ghadaffi in Libya, Iran, North Korea, and at bad people all around as reasons to keep building. But they generally haven't pointed at China and Taiwan, and they generally haven't reminded everyone in a loud voice that mainland China does short- and intermediate- range missile tests by firing directly over Taiwan. Not that they're threatening anyone, or anything.
There's two answers to the last question, actually. It depends on the ground based system you're facing:
A1: If you're facing a "point defense" system: one that has sensors and defensive stuff (guns, missiles, lasers) located in the same place (like: an island in the Pacific) the answer is to attack it from orbit. Localized systems generally can't respond fast enough to objects that are very far away (like: in orbit) to hit them before they become a threat. In other words, ICBMs.
A2: If you're facing a "distributed" system: one that has sensors spread out across the width and breadth of, say, a continent, then you have a problem because the sensors can be spread out so that a radar in one place (like: Alaska) can hand targeting data off to a weapons system in another place (like: California). In this scenario, you have to provide lots of targets, including specially built "decoys", so the system is too busy to kill all the incoming targets. In other words: MIRV.
So yeah, my medication might be a little low this week. But I'm feeling okay because I've been here before. I know about ICBMs. I know about MIRV. It's old home week for me: I grew up with those guys.
Strangely, nobody seems to have mentioned why it would be important for the Chinese to put a man in space. What motivates a nation to spend the money it takes to develop a space program, especially a manned program?
There are a couple of reasons I can see. I don't claim these are "the" reason: they are the inscrutable Chinese, after all. But I'm willing to bet cash money that mentioning any of these in a room with the leadership elements of the Chinese government will draw some smiles:
1. Resources: The Chinese know that there are resources in space. This is trite, and sounds sci-fi nerdish, but I think it's true, and when you're running an absolute oligarchy you can take the long view. China is famous for taking the long view anyway, and also famous for having a population in excess of a billion people. What people often don't say after talking about China's population is that the one billion people are supported using 18th and 19th century techniques: most Chinese don't eat food from highly automated farms, the way Americans and Europeans do. That means two things: China could have a surplus if they automated, and China can easily double (or more) their population, if they wish.
But while that works for grain and rice, it doesn't necessarily work for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other "mineral" resources. So unlike the Americans, who plopped back down on the couch after they beat the Russians at something in space, the Chinese are looking at launching their own satellites and maybe collecting their own rocks.
2. Prestige: Putting a man in space is an exclusive club. Far more so, in these days, than detonating a nuclear device. So China's launch of a manned spacecraft says to the "old" powers: the US and former USSR, "Hey, we're a young hip spacefaring nation. Show us some respect!"
It also, of course, one-ups the other powers in the region: India (also nuclear), and Japan (spacefaring with satellites). On a political/propaganda level, the Chinese have scored a pretty major "be true to your school" type goal. This week, it's cool to be Chinese.
3. Weight: Space capsules are heavy. This is the reason that nobody is talking about: the elephant in the newsroom. Here's a pop quiz for you:
- What's the Chinese word for "rocket powerful enough to place a ton or more of space capsule into orbit"?
It's kind of a trick question, of course. The word is the same in every language on the planet. It's 'inter-continental ballistic missile.'
I'm part of the last generation to grow up with MAD being something other than a bunch of parents whining about drunken driving. So understandably a lot of the people in the newsroom may not have made the connection right away. But I will guarantee that the crowbar that was used to pry the money out of the Chinese government for a manned space program was not: "Gee, boss! We'll beat the Koreans to the moon!"
The Chinese are viewed by everyone — especially the Chinese — as being an "up and coming" nation. They're developing a technological infrastructure, extracting natural resources, becoming a leader in the region, maturing diplomatically (to the point where they've become the leash-holder for N. Korea), and in general are getting ready to become part of what was once called "the First World."
But they've still got that Communist government. What that means, more than anything else, is they've got a government that puts old men in power. Like the Communist USSR and the Mafia, you've got to spend your time, take your licks, pay your dues, whatever, to make it to the top of the Chinese political org-chart. And that means that the people in charge are older even than I am, by a wide margin. They still think this way. Believe it.
The public launch of a manned space mission is fundamentally a statement: "We hereby announce that we have the wherewithal to successfully launch nuclear weapons at targets anywhere on the planet." But it says so in a way that's okay to put on TV. That's what a bunch of generals and politicians get out of a manned space program. 'Tang, the Space Drink' ain't in it!
Now, you'll recall the furor during the Clinton administration over the Chinese theft of plans for some of America's most modern nuclear weapons. Here's the fun news: those weapons are secret- super ultra tippety toppety secret- because they're small. Heavy, mind you: you don't make anything lightweight out of elements that end with "-ium". But we know they've got a booster platform capable of putting a 'manned capsule' in space, and they've got the ability to build very small warheads. It's time for question 2:
- What do you get when you combine a heavy lifter with small warheads?
MIRV is significant, you probably don't remember, because it was the pinnacle of nuclear warfighting technology. MIRV made it all but impossible to negotiate arms control agreements: counting warheads and launch vehicles separately drove everyone nuts. A 'single' missile with eight or ten or sixteen(!) warheads was 'one'. But take it apart for maintenance or inspection and it stopped being 'one' and started being 'lots'. What a headache.
Now if you've read this far, you're probably thinking, "Dude! You need to drink less coffee and get back on your medication — your paranoia is showing!" And you may be right. But before the butterfly-net boys get here, let's answer one more question, shall we:
- How do you defeat a ground-based missile defense?
The government has pointed at Saddam with his Scud attacks on Israel, Ghadaffi in Libya, Iran, North Korea, and at bad people all around as reasons to keep building. But they generally haven't pointed at China and Taiwan, and they generally haven't reminded everyone in a loud voice that mainland China does short- and intermediate- range missile tests by firing directly over Taiwan. Not that they're threatening anyone, or anything.
There's two answers to the last question, actually. It depends on the ground based system you're facing:
A1: If you're facing a "point defense" system: one that has sensors and defensive stuff (guns, missiles, lasers) located in the same place (like: an island in the Pacific) the answer is to attack it from orbit. Localized systems generally can't respond fast enough to objects that are very far away (like: in orbit) to hit them before they become a threat. In other words, ICBMs.
A2: If you're facing a "distributed" system: one that has sensors spread out across the width and breadth of, say, a continent, then you have a problem because the sensors can be spread out so that a radar in one place (like: Alaska) can hand targeting data off to a weapons system in another place (like: California). In this scenario, you have to provide lots of targets, including specially built "decoys", so the system is too busy to kill all the incoming targets. In other words: MIRV.
So yeah, my medication might be a little low this week. But I'm feeling okay because I've been here before. I know about ICBMs. I know about MIRV. It's old home week for me: I grew up with those guys.
posted by Austin | 1:51 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home